Where does this data come from?

Interest rates, the benchmark bond curve, CPI and the Canada–US exchange rate come from the Bank of Canada's Valet API. Commodity prices come from our market data provider.

What is the real policy rate?

The Bank of Canada policy rate less the latest year-over-year CPI reading. It is the simplest read on whether policy is restrictive in inflation-adjusted terms.

Why does the 10-year less 2-year spread matter?

It is the standard shape measure of the Government of Canada curve. A negative number means short bonds yield more than long bonds, which historically accompanies tightening credit conditions.

Macro desk

Maple Macro

The Canadian macro picture in one place: the Bank of Canada policy rate, the Government of Canada yield curve, CPI, the Canadian dollar and the commodities that move Canadian earnings.

Policy interest rate

2.25%

Bank of Canada · Sep 17, 2026

Total CPI, year over year

3.0%

Statistics Canada via BoC · Aug 1, 2026

Real policy rate

-0.75%

Policy rate less total CPI

CAD in US dollars

0.7142

Daily average · Sep 18, 2026

Core measures

The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of underlying inflation. It watches these, not the headline number, when it sets the policy rate.

CPI-trim, year over year

1.9%

Aug 1, 2026

CPI-median, year over year

2.0%

Aug 1, 2026

CPI-common, year over year

2.6%

Aug 1, 2026

Government of Canada yield curve

10 year less 2 year: +0.56% · Sep 17, 2026

2 year

3.27%

3 year

3.36%

5 year

3.54%

7 year

3.63%

10 year

3.83%

Long (30 year)

4.17%

The curve is upward sloping: longer bonds yield more than shorter ones, the normal shape outside of tightening cycles.

Commodities that move Canadian earnings

Commodity	Price	Change	Unit
Gold	4424.90	+0.57%	USD / oz
Silver	67.15	+1.59%	USD / oz
Copper	6.69	+0.45%	USD / lb
WTI crude	96.08	−5.72%	USD / bbl
Natural gas (Henry Hub)	2.91	+0.38%	USD / MMBtu

Sources: Bank of Canada Valet · Delayed commodity feed.