Aya Gold and Silver Has Drilled 3,501 g/t Silver at Zgounder and Sold Nothing From It Yet

Zgounder is a silver mine in the Anti-Atlas mountains of Morocco. It has a mill, it ships concentrate, and it has been doing both for long enough that Aya Gold & Silver Inc. is not asking anyone to imagine a mine that does not exist.

On September 16, 2026 the company reported results from 97 drill holes around that mine, and the best of them returned 3,501 grams of silver per tonne over 3.5 metres in an underground hole, with a 1.5-metre section inside it grading 7,717 g/t. A grade of 3,501 g/t is about 112 troy ounces of silver in every tonne of rock. Halve it and the intercept would still be a strong result by the standards of most silver projects. Double it and it would be one of the highest-grade silver intercepts reported anywhere this year.

The grades are extraordinary, and the widths are narrow

The headline hole is 3.5 metres wide. Most of the intercepts in the release are narrower still: 1,503 g/t over 1.0 metre, 1,553 g/t over 1.4 metres, 4,770 g/t over 2.4 metres in a percussion hole. Width is the number that decides whether grade turns into ounces. A 3.5-metre intercept mined at full width produces roughly half the tonnes of a seven-metre one and roughly twice the tonnes of a 1.75-metre one, and underground mining costs do not fall in proportion when the vein gets thinner.

The surface holes are the wider ones. One reverse-circulation hole returned 783 g/t over 13.0 metres, another 501 g/t over 11.0 metres including a single metre at 4,000 g/t. Those numbers are attributed to the company's release of September 16, 2026, with David Lalonde, Executive Vice-President, Exploration, named as the qualified person under National Instrument 43-101.

The company also said 16,217 metres of the 2026 exploration programme had been completed, or 54.1 per cent of the plan. That leaves nearly half the planned metres still to be drilled, so the September results are evidence of progress rather than a final account of the programme.

None of this has been converted into a mineral resource yet. Drill results are the input to a resource estimate; they are not the estimate, and Zgounder's current resource does not include holes announced in September.

Boumadine is worth US$3.5 billion on paper, and four fifths of it is inferred

On September 9, 2026 Aya published an updated preliminary economic assessment for Boumadine, its second Moroccan project, and The Maple Markets covered it at the time: an after-tax net present value that doubled to US$3.5 billion. The study uses a 5 per cent discount rate, an internal rate of return of 93 per cent, a 14-year mine life, initial capital of US$463 million and a payback of 0.7 years, at assumed prices of US$3,500 an ounce for gold and US$50 an ounce for silver.

US$463 million of initial capital is about two and a half times the company's US$182.8 million cash balance. It is not fundable from cash alone today, though Zgounder's operating cash flow gives Aya financing options that a pre-revenue developer would not have. Debt, a partner, a stream or new equity may still be required.

The figure that governs how much weight the rest of it carries is the resource split. As at February 28, 2026 Boumadine held 8.6 million tonnes of indicated resource containing 1.1 million gold-equivalent ounces, and 45.4 million tonnes of inferred resource containing 4.3 million ounces. Inferred material is about 80 per cent of the contained metal in the study. Inferred is the lowest of the three confidence categories in Canadian resource reporting: it means the geology is interpreted from limited sampling and the tonnes and grades are estimates that drilling may not confirm. Aya's own release carries the standard warning, that the study includes inferred resources considered too speculative geologically to be classed as reserves, and that there is no certainty the assessment will be realised.

So the US$3.5 billion is an engineering study of a body of rock that is mostly not yet drilled to the confidence a mine plan requires. That is normal for a preliminary economic assessment. It is also the reason a PEA is not a feasibility study, and the reason Boumadine has no mineral reserve.

The cash is real, and newer filings matter more than stale data feeds

Aya reported cash and cash equivalents of US$182.8 million at June 30, 2026, against US$136.3 million at December 31, 2025, with working capital of US$144.8 million. Second-quarter revenue was US$96.8 million and net income US$35.0 million, on consolidated production of 1.7 million silver-equivalent ounces at a cash cost of US$16.82 per ounce sold. Total non-current financial liabilities were US$57.1 million; the release does not break out total liabilities, and the figure of US$207.9 million carried by market-data feeds is dated December 31, 2025 rather than June 30, 2026.

US$182.8 million of cash against US$463 million of initial capital at Boumadine is the arithmetic that matters. Half that cash pile and the funding gap would dominate every other question about the company. Double it and Boumadine would be most of the way to funded before a single share was issued. As it stands, the mine pays for the drilling and roughly 40 per cent of a future build, and the rest is unsettled.

Three announcements in sixteen days is a lot of news for one silver company

The sequence matters as much as any single item. On September 1, 2026 Aya agreed to acquire a 139-square-kilometre copper-silver exploration package about 35 kilometres from Zgounder, including a mining licence, for C$4 million payable in shares. On 9 September it doubled Boumadine's study value. On 16 September it reported the Zgounder drilling.

C$4 million in shares is about 0.07 per cent of the company's market value at the 17 September close. Halve it and it would be a rounding error; double it and it would still be. The point of that transaction is the ground next to a working mill, not the money.

The Maple Markets argued on 13 September that Aya earned the right to be heard on a second project by building the first one. Nothing in the three weeks since contradicts that, and the Zgounder drilling strengthens it: the company is spending exploration money around an asset that already generates revenue, which is the cheapest place in mining to look for more ore.

Both projects are in Morocco. A Canadian listing and a Canadian head office do not make Zgounder or Boumadine Canadian ground, and the operating, permitting and fiscal terms that apply to them are Moroccan.

The price has already passed one published target and is chasing another

The shares closed at C$40.24 on the Toronto exchange on September 17, 2026, up C$2.83 or 7.6 per cent, on 1.07 million shares against a 1.1 million 30-day average, with a volume-weighted average price of C$39.64. The 52-week range is C$11.95 to C$41.98, and the market value at that close was about C$5.80 billion on 144.06 million shares. Short interest was 3.07 million shares, about 2.1 per cent of the count. Those are 15-minute delayed secondary market figures read after the close, not verified against SEDAR+ filings.

Third-party price targets are worth reporting accurately and adopting not at all. Stifel Nicolaus raised its reported target to C$56.00 from C$39.00 on September 11, 2026, and a further raise to C$45.00 was reported on 13 September. Those are the views of research houses, published on their own terms and on their own assumptions; whether either house has a banking relationship with Aya is not disclosed in the summaries available, and the underlying notes are not public. The Maple Markets publishes no target of its own.

What is verifiable is narrower and more useful. A producing mine funded the drilling. The drilling found grade in narrow widths and has not yet been turned into a resource. The second project has a study whose economics rest mostly on inferred material and which has produced no reserve. The cash is a fifth of the way through the year better than the last figure most screens show, and the price is within about 4 per cent of its own 52-week high.

The rock at Zgounder keeps getting better. What has not yet happened is the part that turns better rock into more silver in a truck.

Transparency note. This is an independent due-diligence analysis and editorial opinion piece produced by The Maple Markets editorial desk. It is not sponsored, promoted or commissioned, and no compensation of any kind has been received from Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (TSX: AYA) or any party acting on their behalf. The analysis is based on public disclosure available as of the publish date; every figure is attributed to its primary source. The Maple Markets and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and readers should not treat it as investment advice. Past disclosure does not guarantee future results. Policies: Editorial Standards · Financial Disclaimer.