B2Gold Cuts Its Cost Forecast as Its New Goose Mine Ramps Up

Agnico Eagle, Canada's largest gold miner, ran its third quarter at an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,648 an ounce. All-in sustaining cost, or AISC, is the industry's yardstick for what it costs to produce an ounce and keep the mines running, before growth spending. Agnico reported that figure on October 28, 2026, per ounce of gold produced and on a by-product basis, from a larger and differently mixed group of mines.

B2Gold's number for the same quarter, released on November 4, was US$2,602 an ounce sold, as the company reports it, so the two company-reported figures rest on slightly different bases. Much of the gap comes from Goose, the company's new mine in Nunavut, which is still climbing toward the rate it was built for.

The same release lowered B2Gold's full-year cost range and kept its production range, so the year's cost forecast improved while the output target held.

One new mine sets the cost line

Goose produced 39,973 ounces of gold in the third quarter, according to the November 4 release. Its AISC was US$4,816 an ounce sold. That compares with the company-wide figure of US$2,602.

Much of the reason is spending. Goose booked US$69 million of sustaining capital in the quarter, money spent to keep a mine operating rather than to build something new. A young mine carries that spending over fewer ounces, so each ounce looks expensive.

B2Gold's third-quarter management discussion and analysis, the MD&A, gives its own explanation. It attributes the higher company-wide cost to "lower gold production" and "higher sustaining capital expenditures due to the inclusion of Goose." At Fekola in Mali and Masbate in the Philippines, it adds, higher royalties followed the higher gold price.

B2Gold reported these figures for its four mines for the quarter and kept the production ranges below for 2026:

The company-wide cost range came down from US$2,370 to US$2,550. That is a cut of US$140 an ounce at both ends. B2Gold said in the release it remains on track for its production range. Fekola's own revised range, US$2,350 to US$2,500, sits above the company-wide range.

Goose at 3,200 tonnes a day, with 4,000 planned

The mill at Goose is now averaging about 3,200 tonnes of ore a day, the release says. That followed the first phase of upgrades to its fixed crusher, the machine that breaks rock small enough to feed the mill. A fire in the crushing circuit in the second quarter of 2026 had cut mill throughput, the MD&A says, and the fire repairs were completed in mid-October, alongside those upgrades.

A second phase is planned for the first half of 2027. The MD&A says the crushing circuit will be down for up to 10 weeks during that work. Afterwards, the company expects an average of 4,000 tonnes a day by mid-2027. Over the medium term, B2Gold continues to target about 300,000 ounces a year from Goose.

Goose produced 95,739 ounces in the first nine months. Its 2026 range is 170,000 to 200,000 ounces.

To reach the low end, it needs about 74,300 ounces in the fourth quarter. To reach the top, about 104,300. By subtraction, the first half of the year produced about 55,800 ounces combined.

So the range asks for close to double the third quarter at the bottom, and more than two and a half times it at the top. The company has said full-year Goose AISC should land near the top of its cost range, mainly because of the fire at Goose in the second quarter, according to the MD&A. It has not changed the Goose production range.

Goose also sold fewer ounces than it made. It sold 30,894 ounces against 39,973 produced. The MD&A puts this down to "a build-up in inventory." Those ounces exist as gold in stock and in the circuit; they were not booked as revenue in the quarter.

Cash in, cash out

Operating cash flow was US$239 million in the three months to September 30, 2026, according to the release. Free cash flow, the company's own measure of cash left after capital spending, was US$48 million.

For the nine months to September 30, 2026, free cash flow was US$152 million. Operating cash flow over the same nine months was US$699 million, per the release, which leaves a gap of about US$547 million. Goose's sustaining capital of US$183.3 million in the period accounts for about a third of it.

B2Gold also returned money to shareholders. It has bought back 41 million of its shares this year, worth US$205 million, including US$33 million in the third quarter.

On November 4 it declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.02 a share, payable in mid-December.

In Frankfurt the shares trade under the symbol 5BG, WKN A0M889, ISIN CA11777Q2099, per Deutsche Börse.

Cash and cash equivalents were US$294 million at September 30, 2026, down from US$380 million at December 31, 2025, per the MD&A.

The company drew US$95 million on its US$800 million revolving credit facility in the quarter, leaving US$705 million undrawn. A revolving facility works like a large corporate line of credit; this one matures on December 17, 2028.

Its other debt is US$460 million of 2.75 per cent convertible notes due February 1, 2030. The release mentions no new share sale or streaming deal.

Net income was US$414 million for the three months to September 30, 2026. That includes a US$253 million impairment reversal at Fekola, an accounting write-back of an earlier write-down.

Adjusted net income for the three months to September 30, 2026, which strips out items like that, was US$183 million, or US$0.14 a share.

The retail claims, checked against the filings

Retail discussion after the results split two ways. One camp centred on the Goose ramp-up and the crusher. The other centred on free cash flow below what many had hoped for, and on the cost per ounce.

The documents support parts of both. Goose's quarter of about 40,000 ounces and nine-month total of about 96,000 match the release. The 3,200 tonnes a day matches too.

The 4,000 tonnes a day is a mid-2027 target after the second upgrade, per the release, rather than today's rate.

Another claim was that the last gold hedges end in January. They do. At September 30, 2026, B2Gold held gold collars on 66,548 ounces, the MD&A says, with final settlement expected in January 2027. A collar sets a floor and a ceiling on the price the company receives.

These carry a ceiling of US$3,294 an ounce, well below the US$4,289 the company realized in the quarter. Their fair value at September 30 was negative US$63 million, per the MD&A, which reflects that gap.

A figure of about 75,000 ounces from Fekola Regional in 2027 also circulated. It appears in neither the release nor the MD&A; the company has given no separate 2027 ounce figure for those deposits.

Fekola Regional, a second source of ore in Mali

Fekola Regional is a group of satellite deposits near the Fekola mill in Mali. Mali granted the Menankoto exploitation permit on August 7, 2026, according to the release.

Pre-stripping began in October. Pre-stripping is the removal of waste rock to reach the ore underneath. The company expects ore to reach the Fekola plant in the first quarter of 2027, once a toll milling agreement is completed. Toll milling means one operation processes ore for another for a fee.

B2Gold expects output from Fekola Regional to ramp up through the end of 2027. From 2028 through the mid-2030s, it expects more than 150,000 ounces a year. Those are management projections, stated in the release.

A quarter of two speeds

My view is that the cost cut and the Goose climb are both real, and they pull in opposite directions on the same quarter. Three older mines are running well enough to lower the company's full-year cost range. One new mine is absorbing much of the cash they produce, on a schedule the company has dated.

On the first full session after the results, the shares closed at C$7.40 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on November 5, 2026, up 3.50 per cent on 9,421,838 shares, per TMX Money end-of-day data read at 16:58 ET on November 5, 2026.

The next dated steps are the company's own. The fourth quarter will show whether Goose reached its range. The collars settle in January. First ore from Fekola Regional is due in the first quarter of 2027, and the crusher goes down for its second upgrade by mid-year.