Chilean Storms and a Slower Congo Ramp-Up Trim Canadian-Listed Copper Output

Snow slowed the haul trucks at Caserones, a copper mine in the Andes of northern Chile, and two long power outages in July and August stopped it for about 30 days in total. Lundin Mining, which owns it, cut its 2026 copper forecast on November 4.

The same winter reached three other Canadian-listed producers. Teck Resources, Capstone Copper and Lundin all lost tonnes in Chile between July and September, according to their third-quarter releases, while copper itself sold at prices Lundin called a record. Ivanhoe Mines, whose problem is underground in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cut its 2027 forecast the day before Lundin.

None of the mines that lost tonnes is in Canada.

The four companies produced about 300,000 tonnes of copper in the three months to September 30 on a reported basis, with Kamoa-Kakula counted at 100 per cent and Teck's total including its share of Antamina in Peru and Highland Valley in British Columbia. All of Canada mined about 515,000 tonnes in the whole of 2024, per Natural Resources Canada.

Lundin Mining: one mine took the year's forecast down

Lundin's 2026 guidance fell from 300,000 to 325,000 tonnes of copper to 285,000 to 310,000 tonnes, according to its November 4 release, and almost all of the cut came from Caserones. The mine's own range has now been lowered twice: from 130,000 to 140,000 tonnes to 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes on August 18, and to 105,000 to 115,000 tonnes this month.

Caserones produced 15,015 tonnes in the third quarter, against 35,270 tonnes a year earlier. The company attributes the loss to "severe winter weather" during the Super El Niño season, the two outages, and snowmelt that slowed haulage once the mine reopened. Lundin describes the shortfall as deferred tonnes rather than lost production, meaning the ore is still in the ground and the company expects to mine it later.

Its other two mines stayed close to last year. Candelaria, also in Chile, produced 34,954 tonnes against 37,129 tonnes a year earlier, and Chapada in Brazil produced 12,641 tonnes against 12,600 tonnes. Group output was 62,610 tonnes, down from 84,999 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025.

Prices carried the quarter. In the quarter to September 30, 2026, Lundin realized a record US$6.85 a pound and reported revenue of US$1,109.2 million, up from US$953.9 million a year earlier, at a cash cost of US$2.01 a pound after by-product credits. It held net cash of US$237.0 million at September 30, 2026. Maple's November 5 piece on the guidance cut has the company detail.

Teck and Capstone lost tonnes to weather and stoppages

Teck kept its 2026 copper guidance of 455,000 to 530,000 tonnes unchanged in its October 28 release, but two of its Chilean operations carried the season's marks. At Quebrada Blanca, August snowfall and high winds caused power outages and shutdowns, and wet ground then limited access to higher-grade ore into September. At Carmen de Andacollo, heavy rain and flooding caused an extended shutdown, and Teck now expects that mine at the low end of its 45,000 to 55,000 tonne range.

Teck still produced 115,700 tonnes of copper in the quarter, and it lowered its 2026 net cash unit cost guidance to US$1.80 to US$2.00 a pound. The company's release puts the average London Metal Exchange copper price for the quarter at US$6.40 a pound.

Capstone reported 45,218 tonnes on October 29, down 18 per cent from 55,280 tonnes a year earlier, and said it expects 2026 output at the low end of its 200,000 to 230,000 tonne range with costs at the high end of US$2.45 to US$2.75 a pound. Heavy rain in Chile limited access to planned ore at Mantos Blancos. The largest single loss was in Arizona: Pinto Valley lost 45 days to stoppages and a planned crusher rebuild that a storm extended, and its output fell 36 per cent.

Capstone also chose to produce less. At Mantoverde it cut the volume of high-calcium ore sent to its leach pads because, at current sulphuric acid prices, processing that ore does not pay, according to the release. Adjusted EBITDA, the company's measure of operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and one-off items, still reached a record US$358.3 million on a realized price of US$6.61 a pound. Maple covered the quarter on November 2.

Ivanhoe's cut is about mine sequencing, and it is a 2027 number

Ivanhoe's revision has nothing to do with weather. On November 3 the company lowered its 2027 Kamoa-Kakula guidance from 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes to 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes, a cut of almost a fifth at the midpoint.

Its release gives two reasons. Stoping, the stage of underground mining in which ore is extracted from large excavated chambers rather than from development tunnels, will start on the eastern side of the Kakula mine late in the first quarter of 2028 instead of the fourth quarter of 2027. The maximum mining rate at Kakula is also lower than planned. Ivanhoe raised its 2027 cash cost guidance to US$2.50 to US$3.00 a pound from US$2.10 to US$2.50, citing diesel prices, lower grades and the lower output.

Kamoa-Kakula, about 25 kilometres southwest of Kolwezi, produced 76,401 tonnes in the third quarter and is expected to make about 290,000 tonnes in 2026. Ivanhoe and Zijin Mining each hold an indirect 39.6 per cent and the Congolese government holds 20 per cent, so the attributable share for Ivanhoe shareholders is well under half of each tonne. The company says an updated life-of-mine plan will be published in March 2027. Maple's November 6 piece followed the revision.

Why mines miss their forecasts

A copper forecast rests on the tonnes of rock moved, the grade of copper in that rock and the share the mill recovers. In this quarter Teck, Capstone and Lundin lost tonnes moved, mostly to weather, while Ivanhoe's 2027 cut comes from the order in which Kakula's ore is reached; Teck kept its annual guidance.

Sources: the companies' third-quarter 2026 releases. Kamoa-Kakula is reported at 100 per cent; Teck's total includes its share of Antamina and Highland Valley Copper.

Weather is the cause that moves on its own. Teck and Lundin both describe their Chilean losses as events of this winter, and Lundin explicitly expects the Caserones ore to be mined later. Sequencing is the slower kind: Kakula's eastern stopes are a 2028 event, and no rainfall changes that. Equipment sits between the two, as Pinto Valley showed.

Prices have absorbed most of it so far. Realized prices in the quarter ran from US$6.12 a pound at Kamoa-Kakula to US$6.85 at Lundin. Capstone's rose to US$6.61 from US$4.49 a year earlier. Costs rose at the same time. Capstone's cash cost was US$2.95 a pound in the third quarter of 2026, up from US$2.42 a year earlier, and Kamoa-Kakula's averaged US$3.00 in the same quarter. A lower price would show the missing tonnes more plainly in earnings than this quarter did.

What it means for Canada

Canada mined 514,582 tonnes of copper in 2024, about 2 per cent of world output and twelfth among producing countries, according to Natural Resources Canada. British Columbia supplied 48.3 per cent of it. Copper exports were worth C$10.7 billion that year, 56 per cent of them to the United States.

Measured against that, the Canadian-listed companies are larger abroad than the country is at home. Lundin's quarter at Candelaria and Caserones alone exceeded the 35,200 tonnes Teck reported from Highland Valley Copper, its mine near Logan Lake, British Columbia. Teck reported that strike action by United Steelworkers Local 7619 began at Highland Valley on October 24, with operations continuing at reduced capacity, and Maple set out on October 25 how that mine's concentrate reaches buyers.

The practical effect is that Canadian investors, through the TSX, carry Chile's weather and the Congo's mine plans more directly than they carry British Columbia's. Domestic supply and the Canadian-listed copper base are two different quantities, and this quarter showed how far apart they sit.

Two dated events come next. Capstone expects a final investment decision on its Santo Domingo project in Chile in the first quarter of 2027, and Lundin targets a decision on Vicuña, its Argentina-Chile project with BHP, as early as the end of 2026. Ivanhoe's life-of-mine plan in March will show whether the Kakula delay is a one-year shift or a new shape for the mine.