Eldorado Gold Lowers Its 2026 Forecast as Skouries Starts Up in Greece

Ore is moving through the Skouries mill in northern Greece. Eldorado Gold Corporation (TSX: ELD) said in its third-quarter report on 28 October that the copper-gold mine produced its first concentrate on 8 September, and that reaching full speed is taking longer and costing more than the company planned.

The company lowered its 2026 production forecast to 425,000 to 475,000 ounces of gold, from the 495,000 to 600,000 ounces it set in February. Christian Milau, who became president and chief executive on 30 September, put it directly in the release: "At Skouries, the ramp-up has taken longer and cost more than we expected."

On the first session after the report the shares closed at C$45.24 in Toronto on 29 October, 6.22 per cent lower on the day, per end-of-day data read at 13:58 Pacific on 29 October.

Most of the cut comes from one new mine

The forecast fell for three reasons, and the company names each one in its results release. Skouries is the largest. Eldorado now expects 10,000 to 35,000 ounces of gold from it this year, against 60,000 to 100,000 ounces in the February guidance, because the start-up has been slower than planned.

The operating mines account for the rest. At Kisladag in Türkiye the company cites lower-grade ore and slower mining. At Olympias in Greece it cites the timing of an expansion to 650,000 tonnes a year and stockpiled material rich in lead and zinc. Lamaque in Quebec partly offset both with strong results from high-grade ore at Ormaque.

Source: Eldorado Gold Q3 2026 results release, 28 October 2026. "Operating mines" excludes Skouries and McIlvenna Bay, as the company presents it.

The company reported third-quarter output of 106,351 ounces of gold, down from 115,190 ounces a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter to September 30, 2026 rose anyway, to US$511.9 million, because the gold price did the lifting. Eldorado realised an average US$4,326 an ounce over the same three months, against US$3,527 a year before.

Net earnings attributable to shareholders were US$118.0 million for the quarter.

The cost of an ounce, counted in full

One number does most of the work in a gold miner's results, and it has a clumsy name: the all-in sustaining cost, or AISC. It is the answer to a simple question. If the company kept its existing mines running exactly as they are, with no new projects, what would each ounce of gold cost to produce?

Start with the direct bill for digging rock and recovering metal: wages, fuel, power, blasting supplies and the chemicals used at the mill. That is the cash cost. Then add the money a mine has to keep spending just to stay open, such as replacing worn trucks, extending tunnels to reach the next block of ore and raising the walls of a tailings dam. Add royalties owed to governments and landowners, and a share of head-office expense. Divide the total by the ounces sold. The result is the AISC, and the gap between it and the gold price is roughly what each ounce leaves over to pay for growth, debt and dividends.

What the measure leaves out matters as much. Building a new mine is excluded, so the Skouries construction bill is not in it. It is also a figure each company calculates under its own definition rather than an accounting standard, so comparisons between miners need care.

Eldorado's AISC was US$2,050 an ounce in the third quarter, up from US$1,679 a year earlier, the company disclosed. Set against the realised price, each ounce sold left a margin of roughly US$2,276 on the company's own figures.

For the full year the company now expects the operating mines' AISC to land between US$1,975 and US$2,125, above the February range shown in the table. The company attributes part of the increase to higher royalties, which rise with the metal price. So some of the higher cost is the side effect of a higher gold price.

Skouries now costs about US$1.425 billion to build

Skouries sits on the Halkidiki peninsula in northern Greece. The 2022 feasibility study, Eldorado's engineering plan for the mine, set out a 20-year life averaging 140,000 ounces of gold and 67 million pounds of copper a year.

The company now puts total project capital at about US$1.425 billion, as stated in the release of October 28, 2026. The total includes US$65 million of higher project costs and some growth spending moved into the project budget from elsewhere. Eldorado also reports a second, separate pot it calls accelerated operational capital: the operating costs of running the plant before it is formally declared in production, which are capitalised rather than expensed. That estimate is now US$390 million, including a US$95 million increase.

The company says up to US$30 million more may be needed, depending on when commercial production is declared. The release gives higher contractor requirements, longer use of temporary generators, additional owner's costs and a longer commissioning period as the reasons.

Construction is close to finished on the company's own milestones. The primary crusher has run since first ore in July. The site was connected to permanent grid power on 28 September and the temporary generators were removed. Two of three tailings thickeners and two of six filter presses are operating, with the remaining presses due in November. "Commercial production" is the point at which a company judges a new mine to be running consistently near its design rate; Eldorado expects to declare it late in the fourth quarter of 2026. Offtake contracts cover all expected concentrate for the next two years, and stockpiles at the end of September held about 4.8 million tonnes containing roughly 176,000 ounces of gold, per the release.

Where the cash went

The quarter's spending was heavy, and the company reported it in full. Free cash flow, the cash left after operating costs and capital spending, was negative US$191.1 million in the three months to September 30, 2026. Two projects explain the gap. Skouries is one; the other is McIlvenna Bay, the copper-zinc mine in Saskatchewan that Eldorado acquired in April and also expects to bring into commercial production late this year. Without those two, free cash flow for the three months to September 30, 2026 was positive US$98.3 million, as the release stated.

The balance sheet carries that spending. Cash and cash equivalents were US$396.8 million at September 30, 2026, down from US$869.4 million at December 31, 2025, according to the interim MD&A dated October 28, 2026 and filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Total debt was US$1,985.4 million at September 30, 2026, against US$1,275.1 million at the end of 2025, as the MD&A disclosed.

The largest single loan is the Skouries term facility, a project loan from a group of banks that is now fully drawn at €740.4 million, about US$840.7 million, per the release. The company also reported US$274.7 million undrawn on its revolving credit facility at September 30, 2026. That facility was enlarged in August and now runs to March 2029.

Management's position is stated in the filings. The release says Skouries "remains fully funded" through cash, operating cash flow and existing debt facilities, and the MD&A says working capital, operating cash flow and the credit facility are sufficient for planned commitments over the next twelve months. Neither document refers to new equity.

My own assessment is a plain one. The operating mines are paying their way at today's gold price, and the quarter's losses of cash trace almost entirely to two projects that are in their final months of start-up; that holds only if both reach commercial production on the dates the company has now set.

Two start-ups due before the year ends

The next dated steps are close. The remaining Skouries filter presses are scheduled for November, and both Skouries and McIlvenna Bay are expected to reach commercial production late in the fourth quarter. The company also expects a first resource estimate for the Tesla zone at McIlvenna Bay in its fourth-quarter 2026 reserve and resource update. A dividend of US$0.075 a share is payable on 15 December to holders of record on 1 December.

Outside Canada the shares also trade in Frankfurt under the symbol ELO1 (WKN A2PA9H, ISIN CA2849025093), per Deutsche Börse's listing page.

A mine that took longer to start than planned is now producing concentrate. December is when Eldorado says it will be running.