Panama's President Weighs 17 Recommendations on First Quantum's Cobre Panamá

The future of Cobre Panamá now sits on the desk of Panama's president. On September 30, 2026 a commission of three ministers gave José Raúl Mulino a report recommending formal negotiations with First Quantum Minerals over a restart of the copper mine, on terms built around its eventual closure.

Mulino has asked for time. He said he would study the report with his cabinet and his lawyers, and that he would not repeat the mistake of deciding in four days on a question the country would carry for decades, La Estrella de Panamá reported on October 1, 2026. On October 9, 2026 Commerce and Industry Minister Julio Moltó said the president had not yet authorized the start of formal talks, according to the broadcaster TVN.

First Quantum's statement of September 30, 2026 said it would negotiate in good faith toward a framework consistent with Panama's constitution and laws, and that it was awaiting the government's guidance on next steps. The same statement said any new agreement must respect Panama's sovereignty, democratic institutions and the government-led process, and cited the benefits the mine brings Panama through employment, local procurement and community investment.

Three stages are easy to run together here. A recommendation exists, in writing. An authorization to negotiate is the president's call and had not been given as of October 9, 2026. An agreement would come after that.

A mine that made almost half the company's copper

Cobre Panamá is an open-pit copper mine in the district of Donoso, with its own port at Punta Rincón on the Caribbean coast. It produced 350,438 tonnes of copper in 2022 and 330,863 tonnes in 2023, according to First Quantum's results release of February 20, 2024. The 2023 figure was 46.8 per cent of the company's 707,678 tonnes that year.

Production stopped at the end of November 2023, after blockades at the port and on the roads to the site cut off supplies the power plant needed, the company said. In the same month Panama's Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional Law 406, the statute that set out the mine's contract. Since then the site has been in what the company calls preservation and safe management: production stays halted while the site is preserved and kept safe.

One mill has been running on stockpiled ore since May

On April 7, 2026 the government approved, by Resolution No. 27, the removal of ore that had been mined before the shutdown and left in stockpiles, along with its processing and export. First Quantum described those stockpiles as about 38 million tonnes holding about 70,000 tonnes of recoverable copper. The company said the work involves no new drilling, blasting or mining. The first of three milling circuits was commissioned in May.

Head grade is the share of copper in the ore fed to the mill. Recovery is the share of that copper the plant captures. What leaves the mill is concentrate, a powder of separated copper minerals that a smelter turns into metal.

First Quantum kept its 2026 guidance for Cobre Panamá at 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes of copper. Site employment rose from about 2,350 people in early April to about 3,000 by the end of June.

The two schedules differ. In July the company said the stockpiles would support about twelve months of processing at the rates of the time. The report does not state the pace behind its six months. On the July 29, 2026 results call Chief Executive Officer Tristan Pascall said processing had been switched from Milling Train 3 to Milling Train 2 as part of the plant's maintenance cycling, and that the company could potentially add another train but was limited by bringing people back. Neither document explains the difference between the two schedules.

First Quantum's summary puts the audit at 87.7 per cent

On June 19, 2026 Panama's environment ministry published the final integral audit of the mine by the inspection company SGS. In First Quantum's summary, 361 of 370 environmental commitments were fulfilled and the audit gave an overall compliance score of 87.7 per cent, with the commitments not met in full related primarily to long-term reforestation, including programmes suspended since 2023. The commission's report explains the gap between that count and the score: it describes the 87.7 per cent as a weighted score that combines four components of the audit's methodology rather than a simple average.

Environment Minister Juan Carlos Navarro said on October 9, 2026 that the outstanding obligations would be enforced whatever the president decides, TVN reported.

First Quantum's release of September 30, 2026 describes the commission's submission to the president as studies and analysis together with a comprehensive audit report of Cobre Panamá, alongside the 17 recommendations. The release does not name that audit.

The commission's terms start with a fixed closing date

The commission brought together Panama's ministers of commerce, of the economy and of the environment. Its first recommendation asks the president to authorize formal negotiations with Cobre Panamá and First Quantum to assess a new agreement. That agreement would settle the pending international arbitrations and set conditions for a start-up leading to an orderly closure, "sin costo para la Nación, sin posibilidad de prórroga", at no cost to the nation and with no possibility of extension. The seventeenth recommendation makes ending the arbitrations a mandatory condition of any deal.

The report says it adopts no decision and that the decision belongs to the president alone.

Its principles describe the kind of arrangement the commission has in mind. The nation would act as owner of the deposit rather than only as a collector of royalties. The state would verify the mine's financial flows itself instead of relying on the operator's reports. A definitive closure date would be set in advance, with no renewal, and the footprint of the mine would not grow.

The report sets no operating period. Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapman described on October 9, 2026 a limited operation of roughly 16 to just over 20 years, long enough to pay for closure and environmental restoration without the state budget, according to TVN.

The commission estimated that closing the site with no agreement would cost 2.6 billion to 3.4 billion balboas over 17 to 19 years; the balboa is fixed at par with the US dollar. It built that range from a 2024 ministry estimate of closure costs and the monthly preservation costs First Quantum gave investors in January 2024, and called the figures orders of magnitude.

One arbitration discontinued, one suspended

First Quantum's interim statements for the six months ended June 30, 2026 set out where the legal claims stand. Minera Panamá, the operating subsidiary, agreed on March 31, 2025 to discontinue its arbitration before the International Chamber of Commerce. On the same day First Quantum agreed to suspend its claim under the Canada-Panama Free Trade Agreement. A three-member tribunal for that claim was constituted on September 10, 2025, and the notes put no figure on either claim.

The commission's report still refers to the pending international arbitrations, in the plural. It says the proceedings were started by the operator and by financial partners of the project, whom it does not name, and its annex records both the withdrawal from the ICC process and the suspension of the treaty claim.

Pascall told analysts in July that arbitration was not the company's preferred outcome and that the company's rights remained protected while the claim is suspended. The commission's condition would turn that suspension into a termination, inside any agreement the two sides negotiate.

Zambia carries most of the 2026 plan

For the group, the stockpile supplies under a tenth of the year's copper plan. First Quantum's 2026 guidance of 405,000 to 475,000 tonnes of copper, unchanged in the July release, includes the 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes expected from Cobre Panamá.

Most of the rest comes from Kansanshi and Sentinel in Zambia. The group produced 100,487 tonnes of copper in the second quarter of 2026.

First Quantum held cash and cash equivalents of US$779 million at June 30, 2026, according to its interim statements. Its total debt at June 30, 2026 was US$6,178 million.

Net debt, the company's own measure of bank overdrafts and total debt less unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, was US$5,407 million at June 30, 2026. The statements put net unrestricted cash, after overdrafts, at US$771 million at June 30, 2026, which accounts for the US$8 million difference from total debt less cash.

Net debt rose US$123 million in the second quarter of 2026, mainly because of US$322 million of capital spending and US$199 million of taxes paid.

EBITDA, the company's earnings before interest and tax with depreciation and amortization added back, was US$400 million in the second quarter of 2026. That total included a negative contribution of US$51 million from Cobre Panamá, where preservation costs came before the first output. The company's copper sales hedges ended on June 30, 2026, and Pascall told analysts on July 29, 2026 that the company was once again fully exposed to spot copper prices. Copper's cash price on the London Metal Exchange averaged US$6.05 a pound in the second quarter of 2026, against a realized price of US$5.34 after hedge losses, per the release.

C$33.44 at Friday's close in Toronto

First Quantum shares closed at C$45.12 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on September 29, 2026. On September 30, 2026, the day the report became public, they traded as low as C$28.00 and closed at C$38.23, down 15.27 per cent, per TMX Money's price history.

Canada's investment industry regulator, CIRO, issued three trading-halt notices on the shares that morning, according to the notices listed on TMX Money. Its last resumption notice came at 2:09 p.m. ET, 16 minutes after the company's statement at 1:53 p.m. ET.

On Friday, October 23, 2026 the shares closed at C$33.44, down 1.907 per cent on 2,489,568 shares traded on the TSX, per end-of-day data read on TMX Money on October 24, 2026.

At that price the 834,206,731 listed shares carry a market value of about C$27.9 billion. Over the past year the shares have traded between C$27.06 and C$49.27, according to TMX Money.

The same shares are quoted in Frankfurt under the symbol IZ1, WKN 904604, according to Deutsche Börse's listing page. Their ISIN, CA3359341052, is the Canadian security's own identifier, so a quote on either exchange is a quote for the same share.

Two dates, one of them fixed

First Quantum will release third-quarter 2026 results after the TSX close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 and hold its call on Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. ET, according to its notice of September 29, 2026. The other date belongs to Mulino, and he has not named it. Until he does, the stockpile programme runs on its April approval and the commission's 17 recommendations wait on his desk.

The commission wants the closing date written down before any restart, and the finance minister has spoken of something between 16 and just over 20 years. How many years of mining an agreement would allow, and whether those years would fund the closure on terms First Quantum is prepared to sign, is what a negotiation would settle once the president authorizes one.