Kinross Gold's Third Quarter: 425,000 Ounces After a Lower 2026 Forecast

Kinross Gold told the market in late September roughly how much gold its third quarter would produce. When the results came out on October 28, the figure matched almost to the ounce.

The guidance had said about 425,000 ounces; the quarter delivered 424,693. The forecast cut came first, then two deaths at a Nevada mine, then a set of results that matched what the company had already said. The growth projects moved on their own clock throughout.

July 29: a forecast of two million ounces

Kinross reports in US dollars and counts its output in gold equivalent ounces. A gold equivalent ounce converts the silver a mine produces into the amount of gold it would be worth, so a company can state one production figure.

In its second-quarter MD&A, prepared as of July 29, 2026, Kinross said it was on track to meet its annual guidance of 2.0 million attributable gold equivalent ounces, plus or minus 5 per cent. "Attributable" means the share of production Kinross owns, after removing partners' interests. Its all-in sustaining cost guidance, the cost of producing an ounce including the spending needed to keep the mines running, was US$1,730 an ounce, plus or minus 5 per cent.

The same document recorded the first blast of the exploration decline at Great Bear on July 27. A decline is a sloped tunnel driven down from surface so that miners and drills can reach the orebody underground.

September 23: the forecast comes down

Two months later the guidance changed. In a release dated September 23, Kinross said 2026 and 2027 attributable production would be 2 to 3 per cent below the low end of the prior range, at about 1.84 million to 1.86 million ounces a year.

It raised its all-in sustaining cost estimate to about US$1,850 to US$1,900 an ounce.

The company gave its reason in its own words: "extreme weather and operational challenges" at La Coipa in Chile and Round Mountain in Nevada. At Round Mountain, lower mining rates, grades and recoveries in the open-pit area called Phase S reduced the expected output. The release put third-quarter production at about 425,000 ounces. Paracatu in Brazil and Tasiast in Mauritania, the two largest mines, were performing in line with guidance.

The same release did two things that pointed the other way. It raised the share of 2026 free cash flow Kinross intends to return to shareholders from 40 per cent to 50 per cent. And it said the underground mine at Round Mountain, Phase X, remained on track for production in 2028, with infill drilling showing more ounces than expected in the first areas to be mined.

September: two deaths at Bald Mountain

The third quarter carried the gravest item in the results. Kinross reported that in September 2026 two unrelated safety incidents occurred at its Bald Mountain mine in Nevada, each involving an employee of a business partner, the company's term for a contractor. One person suffered fatal injuries on site. The second was seriously injured and later died in hospital.

Kinross said it held company-wide safety stand-downs in response, which means work paused across its operations for safety reviews. The results release states the incidents and the response. It does not give their causes, and Kinross had published no investigation findings as of October 28.

October 28: the quarter in numbers

Kinross produced 424,693 attributable gold equivalent ounces in the quarter ended September 30, 2026, against 503,862 a year earlier, according to the release. Nine-month output was 1,409,582 ounces.

Kinross realised an average of US$4,249 an ounce in the quarter, up 23 per cent from US$3,460 a year earlier, according to the release.

Revenue from metal sales in the quarter ended September 30, 2026 was US$1,774.7 million, and net earnings attributable to shareholders were US$583.2 million, or US$0.49 a share.

Operating cash flow for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 was US$714.4 million. Attributable free cash flow, which Kinross defines as operating cash flow less attributable capital spending, adjusted for partners' shares, was US$281.3 million for the same quarter.

Costs rose with the weaker operations. All-in sustaining cost was US$1,947 an ounce sold in the quarter, above the revised full-year range, and US$1,827 over nine months.

The MD&A repeats the revised guidance and says Kinross is on track to meet it, with cost guidance assuming gold at US$4,350 an ounce and oil at US$100 a barrel for the rest of the year. Chief executive J. Paul Rollinson said in the release that Kinross remained on track "supported by operational improvements at Round Mountain and La Coipa."

The mine-by-mine figures show where the quarter came from:

By the desk's calculation from the release, Paracatu and Tasiast produced about 63 per cent of attributable output between them, while La Coipa and Round Mountain, the two the September release named, produced about 13 per cent together.

The cost of the weaker mines shows at Round Mountain. Its production cost of sales was US$2,557 an ounce, against US$2,095 a year earlier.

The balance sheet at September 30

The balance sheet carries far more cash than debt. At September 30, 2026, Kinross held cash and cash equivalents of US$2,638.4 million against total debt of US$739.2 million, for net cash of US$1,899.2 million. The debt is all senior notes, due in 2033 and 2041. Its revolving credit facility was undrawn at that date, and total available credit was US$1,744.2 million, according to the MD&A.

Kinross bought back about US$230 million of shares, 8.6 million shares, in the third quarter and about US$810 million in 2026 to October 28, according to the October 28 results release.

The MD&A's outstanding share data shows 1,173.3 million common shares outstanding at October 27, 2026.

The board declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.04 a share, payable on December 3 to holders of record on November 19.

My own assessment, from these documents, is that the gold price, more than the mines, carried this quarter; the company's cash generation covered its spending and its buyback, and the strain sat at two mines it had already named in September.

Great Bear and Phase X: the growth projects in October

Great Bear, near Red Lake in northwestern Ontario, is the gold project Kinross is building toward a mine. It runs in two parts. The advanced exploration program, which the company calls AEX, builds the declines and surface facilities needed to drill and sample the deposit from underground. The Main Project is the mine itself.

As of the October 28 release, AEX surface construction was substantially complete and the North and South declines had more than 500 metres of development combined. In July the first decline blast had only just been fired. Detailed engineering on the Main Project was more than 55 per cent complete, up from about 50 per cent at the end of June, and long-lead equipment was in manufacturing.

Permitting is the dated step. The federal Impact Assessment Agency of Canada issued its first round of information requests at the end of July and Kinross has responded, according to the release. The provincial technical review is expected to be complete by year-end. On the Impact Benefits Agreement with the Wabauskang and Lac Seul First Nations, the release says a memorandum of understanding on the key economic and procurement elements has been signed and the non-financial aspects are being progressed. Near-mine drilling in the quarter confirmed that mineralisation at the Viggo zone extends a further 150 metres down dip, meaning deeper along the angle of the zone.

The MD&A gives no date for drilling from inside the declines and no production date for the Main Project. Discussion on Canadian retail investor boards this week has centred on underground drilling starting early in 2027 and on a contingent payment tied to the size of Great Bear's resource. Neither appears in the October 28 release or MD&A, so neither is reported here as a company commitment.

At Round Mountain, Phase X had more than 9,600 metres of underground development by the end of the quarter, about 8 per cent ahead of plan. Extension drilling about 300 metres down dip of the current resource returned 11.7 grams of gold per tonne over 27.5 metres, according to the release. A drill intercept measures the grade over a length of core; it is evidence that the zone continues, and it becomes part of a resource only after enough holes define its size. First production remains planned for 2028.

November and after

The next dated items are close together. The dividend record date is November 19 and payment December 3. The Ontario technical review on Great Bear is expected by the end of December, and the full-year results will show whether the fourth quarter held the revised range of 1.84 million to 1.86 million ounces.