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Hannah Kuan

Markets Reporter · 7 years covering small-cap and venture markets

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Hannah covers the TSX Venture Exchange, the CSE, new listings and the financing cycle for early-stage issuers.

Beats: Markets, Venture, Crypto

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Published work

Macro

Bank of Canada Raises Its Rate to 2½%, the First Increase Since 2023

The Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent on October 28, 2026, its first increase since July 2023, to reduce the risk that high energy prices spread to other prices. Its October Monetary Policy Report projects CPI inflation of about 3½ per cent by the end of 2026, an average of about 3 per cent in 2027 and 2 per cent by mid-2028, with GDP growth of 1 per cent in 2026 and 2 per cent in 2027. The next decision is due December 9, 2026.

By Hannah Kuan8 min read

Markets

How Onex Arrives at C$176 a Share for Its Investing Capital

Onex Corporation reported investing capital of US$123.99 per fully diluted share, or C$176.02, at June 30, 2026, with its stake in the specialty insurer Convex valued at US$4.2 billion. The Toronto shares closed at C$103.61 on October 28. The company set November 13 for its third-quarter results in a release dated October 20.

By Hannah Kuan6 min readONEX.TO

Macro

Aurubis Lifts Its 2027 Copper Premium to a Record US$347, Sources Say

Aurubis will charge European buyers a record US$347 a tonne over the LME price for 2027 copper, up from US$315, three market sources told Reuters on October 14, 2026; the company declined to comment. Its own quarterly report says the fees miners pay smelters have turned negative on the spot market because smelter demand outpaced mine supply, and the International Copper Study Group expects refined output from concentrate to fall in 2026 because concentrate is constrained. Canada's large copper producers sell that concentrate; their second-quarter releases show processing deductions near zero.

By Hannah Kuan9 min read

Macro

Roughly Half of Surveyed Canadian Firms Plan to Raise Prices

On September 2 the Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25 per cent and said it would watch whether costlier fuel spreads into other prices. On October 19 it received two answers. Statistics Canada's September index put inflation outside energy at 2.1 per cent and the Bank's preferred core measures below 2 per cent. The Bank's own surveys found roughly half of firms planning to pass costs on and households expecting more inflation for longer. Here is how the two fit together before the October 28 decision.

By Hannah Kuan9 min read

Macro

The Bank of Canada Weighs Costlier Gasoline Against Lost Jobs

Canada's consumer prices rose 3.0 per cent in the year to August, but gasoline did much of the lifting and the Bank of Canada's preferred core measures sat at 1.9 and 2.0 per cent. Employment fell by 68,000 in September after 42,000 in August. The Bank holds its policy rate at 2.25 per cent until October 28, when it weighs a price shock it did not cause against a job market that is losing ground, with September inflation due nine days earlier.

By Hannah Kuan7 min read

macro

A US Court Struck the Tariff, and C$97 Million Came Back

Aritzia recognised about C$97.4 million of United States tariff refunds inside its second-quarter gross profit, and reported a 57.1 per cent gross margin against 48.7 per cent without them. The money exists because the Supreme Court of the United States held on February 20, 2026 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. Canada's own surtax on American goods, in force since September 8, 2026, sets up the same accounting question in the other direction, with remission rather than refund as the route back.

By Hannah Kuan8 min read

macro

A 2026 Low for the Loonie Repriced Canadian Mining Revenue

Metals are quoted in US dollars. Canadian wages, power and provincial royalties are paid in Canadian dollars. The exchange rate sits between the two, and this year it moved far enough to change what a tonne of copper is worth in Canada by more than five per cent without any change in the metal price. Here is where that money goes, for a saver, a producer and a junior pricing a financing.

By Hannah Kuan7 min readXGD.TO

macro

A Swiss Agency's US$212.5 Million for a Quebec Mine Is Eighty-Five Per Cent of a Swiss Order

On September 16, 2026 two Canadian-listed companies announced support from foreign government institutions: a Swiss Export Risk Insurance letter of support of about US$212.5 million for First Phosphate's Quebec project, and a US$414.2 million approval from the US International Development Finance Corporation for Global Atomic's mine in Niger. The two institutions do different jobs. One exists to sell Swiss machinery, the other to invest in emerging markets, and the OECD rulebook behind the first explains why its number is the size it is.

By Hannah Kuan9 min read

Economy

The Loonie Has Two Engines: Why a 1.4-Point Rate Gap Is Only Half of the Canadian Dollar Story

The Bank of Canada's policy rate sat about 1.4 percentage points below the US effective federal funds rate in early September 2026, metals prices rose 4.2 per cent into August, and the loonie ended the week close to where it began. That stops being a puzzle once the currency is read as the net of two forces, the rate gap and the terms of trade. Here is how each one works, what the Bank's commodity index says about August, and what a five per cent move in the loonie does to a US$10,000 position.

By Hannah Kuan8 min read

Mining and ResourcesRare earths

Defense Metals and Wicheeda: High-Risk Rare-Earth Optionality

Defense Metals trades on the TSX Venture Exchange as DEFN and on the OTCQB as DFMTF. Its principal asset is the 100%-owned Wicheeda rare-earth project in British Columbia. Wicheeda is at the study and advanced-exploration stage, not production. The company reported a fiscal-2026 net loss of approximately C$5.2 million. A late-2025 interim balance-sheet snapshot showed approximately C$16.5 million of cash and short-term investments with nominal conventional debt, although subsequent exploration and corporate spending will have changed that position.

By Hannah Kuan2 min readDEFN

Technology

Shopify's Take Rate, Decomposed

Shopify's revenue growth is usually explained by GMV growth. The larger part of the story is take rate — and take rate is a mix outcome, with very different margins behind each component.

By Hannah Kuan3 min readSHOP

Mining and ResourcesGraphite

Nouveau Monde Graphite: Can Québec Build a Battery-Anode Champion?

Nouveau Monde Graphite trades as NOU on the TSX and NMG on the NYSE. Its Phase-2 plan combines the Matawinie graphite mine with an active-anode-materials plant in Bécancour, Québec. The company reached a positive final investment decision and began major construction activities in 2026. At March 31, 2026 it held C$57.3 million in cash, remained pre-revenue and reported a C$4.5 million quarterly net loss. Subsequent financing included a substantial equity raise and commitments for approximately US$335 million of debt.

By Hannah Kuan2 min readNOU

Mining and ResourcesLithium

Lithium Americas and Thacker Pass: Construction Risk Explained

Lithium Americas trades as LAC on the TSX and NYSE. Its principal asset is a 62% interest in the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada; General Motors owns the remaining 38%. Phase 1 is designed for approximately 40,000 tonnes per year of battery-quality lithium carbonate, with mechanical completion targeted for late 2027. Q1 2026 cash and restricted cash totalled US$1.21 billion and long-term liabilities were approximately US$1.07 billion.

By Hannah Kuan2 min readLAC

Mining and ResourcesLithium

Sigma Lithium: Production Recovery Versus Regulatory Risk

Sigma Lithium trades as SGML on the TSX Venture Exchange and Nasdaq and as S2GM34 in Brazil. It operates the Grota do Cirilo hard-rock lithium project in Minas Gerais. In Q1 2026, the company reported US$42 million of revenue, a 39% EBITDA margin and a 26% net margin. Quarter-end debt was US$134 million; cash was US$4 million at March 31 and US$28 million by May 15 following collection of receivables.

By Hannah Kuan2 min readSGML

BusinessIndustrials

Stella-Jones, Infrastructure Spending and the Utility Pole Cycle

Stella-Jones sits at the intersection of grid hardening, rail capital cycles and housing activity, but its three segments respond to very different drivers. This piece breaks down why utility poles are the stable core, why railway ties add the cyclicality, and why the residential segment is the wildcard investors should watch separately.

By Hannah Kuan3 min readSJ

Canadian MarketsSmall cap

Why Canadian Small Caps Trade at a Persistent Discount

Canadian small caps trade at persistently lower multiples than larger peers mostly because of market structure, not weaker businesses: index exclusion limits passive demand, shrinking sell-side economics have hollowed out analyst coverage, and concentrated ownership thins the tradable float. The gap tends to close only through discrete, event-driven catalysts rather than gradually.

By Hannah Kuan3 min read

BusinessChemicals

Methanex and the Cyclicality Investors Keep Underestimating

Methanex's earnings swing harder than most industrial companies because of high operating leverage and volatile natural gas feedstock costs. This piece explains the mechanics behind that cyclicality and why marine-fuel demand, while structural, is not yet large enough to smooth it out.

By Hannah Kuan3 min readMX

Canadian MarketsExplainer

What a Bought Deal Means for Existing Shareholders

The bought deal is Canada's dominant equity financing structure, and its mechanics predictably pressure the share price around announcement. This explainer covers how discounts and warrants are set, what they signal about issuer leverage, and how to judge whether a deal is worth the dilution.

By Hannah Kuan3 min read

Canadian MarketsVenture

Why the CSE Matters More Than Its Size Suggests

The Canadian Securities Exchange lists companies that senior exchanges will not, giving early-stage and regulatorily ambiguous sectors access to public capital at the cost of lighter disclosure and diligence standards. That trade-off, not fraud or illegitimacy, is the defining feature investors need to understand before sizing a position.

By Hannah Kuan3 min read

BusinessTransport

Air Canada's Capacity Discipline Is the Whole Margin Story

Air Canada's margins hinge less on its own cost control than on whether the airline industry as a whole restrains seat growth relative to demand. Fuel hedging and debt reduction shape the near-term picture, but industry capacity discipline drives the cycle.

By Hannah Kuan4 min readAC

BusinessConsumer

Alimentation Couche-Tard and the Fuel Margin Question

Couche-Tard's results blend a stable, predictable merchandise business with a volatile fuel-margin business tied to the commodity cycle. The company's real long-run growth engine is its record of acquiring and integrating retail networks.

By Hannah Kuan4 min readATD

BusinessTelecom

Telus and BCE: The Dividend Yield Is Telling You Something

Elevated dividend yields at Telus and BCE reflect a genuine question about payout sustainability, not just a value opportunity. This piece walks through free-cash-flow payout ratios, the capital-intensity cycle, and the competitive pressures that will determine whether the dividends are actually covered going forward.

By Hannah Kuan3 min readTBCE

BusinessAsset management

Brookfield's Fee-Related Earnings Are the Signal Worth Tracking

Brookfield's headline distributable earnings blend two very different income streams: recurring fee-related earnings and lumpy carried interest. This piece explains why separating them, and watching committed capital, is the better way to read the business.

By Hannah Kuan3 min readBN

Canadian MarketsIndex analysis

Why the TSX Composite Keeps Outrunning the S&P 500 This Year

The TSX Composite's outperformance against the S&P 500 this year traces almost entirely to sector composition: heavy materials and energy weighting has caught a commodity upswing, while steady bank earnings add a quieter, more durable layer of return. The same concentration that is helping now is what caused years of underperformance during the US technology-led rally.

By Hannah Kuan3 min read

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