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Marc Belzile

Energy and Real Estate Correspondent · 15 years in energy finance

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Marc follows oil sands producers, midstream operators and Canadian REITs, with an emphasis on cash flow and balance sheets.

Beats: Energy, Real Estate

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Published work

Macro

A Quarter-Point Rate Rise Meets Canada's Last Big Mortgage Renewals

The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on October 28, its first increase since 2023. For mortgage holders the change arrives through two different doors: prime-linked variable loans adjust at once, and fixed-rate renewals follow the five-year bond yield. The Bank estimates the last large group of pandemic-era renewals, about 12% of all mortgages, faces payments about 15% higher, and that nearly all of it will have renewed by the second half of 2027.

By Marc Belzile6 min read

Macro

Canada's Economy Was Flat in August, and the Loonie Ended October Firmer

Real gross domestic product was essentially unchanged in August 2026, Statistics Canada said on October 30, 2026, the second flat month in a row, and was 1.5 per cent higher than in August 2025. An advance estimate shows a 0.1 per cent decline in September, which the agency said leaves third-quarter growth at 0.3 per cent. The Canadian dollar was worth US$0.7163 on October 30 by the Bank of Canada's daily average, up from its 2026 low of US$0.7007 on October 9, and the 2-year and 10-year Government of Canada benchmark yields were 3.36 and 3.84 per cent on October 29.

By Marc Belzile8 min read

Markets

Aritzia's Five-Year Plan Aims to Roughly Double Revenue by Fiscal 2032

Aritzia Inc. (TSX: ATZ) presented a five-year strategic plan on October 27, 2026, targeting net revenue of C$9.5 billion to C$10.5 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21 per cent by fiscal 2032. The plan calls for 220 boutiques, 12 to 14 new United States boutiques a year, about C$4.1 billion to C$4.5 billion of North American digital revenue, about C$1.5 billion from new products and up to C$500 million from markets outside North America, with about C$2 billion of share repurchases over five years.

By Marc Belzile7 min readATZ.TO

Mining & Energy

Teck Reports Thursday: A Strike at the Mine Behind 30% of Its First-Half Copper

Teck Resources reports its third-quarter 2026 results before the TSX opens on Thursday, October 29. The quarter ended on September 30, the day the Highland Valley Copper collective agreement expired. United Steelworkers Local 7619 began strike action on October 24 and Teck said the British Columbia mine was running at reduced capacity. The release is Teck's first scheduled update since then on its 2026 copper guidance, on Quebrada Blanca in Chile and on the pending merger with Anglo American.

By Marc Belzile8 min readTECK-B.TO

Markets

IBC Advanced Alloys Shares Fall 25% on Heavy Volume

IBC Advanced Alloys published no release, filing or exchange notice on October 23, the day its shares fell to C$0.105 on heavy volume. Its latest results, dated October 15, show revenue of US$19.5 million for the year to June 30, 2026, up 9.8 per cent, with a smaller loss and a convertible financing still running.

By Marc Belzile7 min readIB.V

Markets

Vancouver's Aritzia Reached Its 2027 Revenue Goal a Year Early

Aritzia, founded in Vancouver in 1984, reached the fiscal 2027 revenue goal of its October 2022 plan a year early, with C$3.70 billion of net revenue in fiscal 2026, and now expects C$4.78 billion to C$4.88 billion for fiscal 2027. It sets out its next long-range plan at an Investor Day on October 27, 2026. Canadian net revenue rose 19.8 per cent to C$390.4 million in the quarter to August 30, 2026, ahead of the 5.5 per cent Statistics Canada reported for clothing retailers in July. The outlook excludes the quarter's C$97.4 million tariff refund.

By Marc Belzile8 min readATZ.TO

Macro

A Weaker Loonie Lowers the Cost of Mining Gold in Canada

Gold is priced in US dollars, but a mine in Ontario, Quebec or Nunavut pays much of its bill in Canadian dollars. With the Bank of Canada's rate at 1.4154 Canadian dollars per US dollar on October 16, against the 1.36 Agnico Eagle and the 1.34 Equinox Gold assumed in their 2026 guidance, each Canadian dollar of cost converts into about 4 to 5 per cent fewer US dollars. Hedges, royalties and diesel absorb part of the effect, and mines outside Canada get none of it.

By Marc Belzile6 min read

macro

Canadian Miners Made More Metal Than They Sold Last Quarter

Mining and metals names took 26 of the 47 places on this week's Canadian mover lists, and two of the quarter's production releases carried the same quiet feature: more metal came out of the ground than went off the books. DPM Metals produced about 97,000 gold-equivalent ounces in the September quarter and sold about 77,000. Ivanhoe Mines finished the quarter holding roughly 43,000 tonnes of unsold copper, up from about 40,000. Neither gap is a demand problem, and only one of them closes on its own.

By Marc Belzile10 min read

Canadian Markets

C$97 Million of Tariff Refunds Sit Inside Aritzia's Record Margin

Aritzia reported second quarter fiscal 2027 results after the close on 8 October 2026. Net revenue rose 44.1 per cent to C$1.17 billion and comparable sales rose 34.5 per cent. The reported gross margin of 57.1 per cent includes C$97.4 million of tariff refunds; excluding them the margin was 48.7 per cent. The company lifted its full-year outlook, which excludes any further refund benefit. The shares closed at C$146.91 on 9 October, up 20.5 per cent.

By Marc Belzile6 min readATZ.TO

macro

Canada's Miners Hold C$241 Billion of Assets Outside Canada

Five of the companies The Maple Markets covered this week dig in Niger, Japan, Morocco, the Congo and Oregon, and all of them raise money in Canada. Natural Resources Canada counts C$240,565 million of Canadian mining assets abroad at the end of 2024 against C$111,982 million at home. Where the money is listed and where the rock is have become two separate questions, and a falling loonie flattered the reported total by 4.6 percentage points.

By Marc Belzile7 min read

macro

Kinross Raised Its Cost Per Ounce Eight Per Cent, and the Arithmetic Points at the Denominator

Kinross Gold cut its 2026 production outlook and raised its all-in sustaining cost outlook in one release on September 23, 2026. The cost figure went from about US$1,730 per ounce to US$1,850 to US$1,900 per ounce. Holding February's implied total cost dollars constant and dividing by the new ounce count gives US$1,870 per ounce, inside the new band. That is what a per-ounce cost measure does when the ounces go missing, and it is the single most useful thing to understand about a gold producer's headline cost number.

By Marc Belzile8 min readXGD.TO

Economy

Four Canadian-Listed Companies Announced Government Money This Week, and None of It Was Cash

Between September 15 and September 18, 2026, Conifex Timber, Global Atomic, First Phosphate and Bitterroot Resources each announced that a government had put money behind them: up to C$30 million, US$414.2 million, US$212.5 million and up to US$5.22 million. Four announcements, four instruments, and not one of them is a transfer of cash. Here is what a loan agreement, a conditional approval, an export-credit letter of support and a cost-share award each oblige, and what has to be true before the money arrives.

By Marc Belzile9 min read

markets

Conifex Has a Federal Loan of Up to C$30 Million and a Market Value of C$5.1 Million

Conifex Timber Inc. (TSX: CFF) said on 18 September 2026 that it had received a Large Enterprise Tariff Loan of up to C$30 million from the Government of Canada, on a seven-year term secured by substantially all of its property. The shares closed at C$0.125, up 38.9 per cent. At 30 June 2026 the company held C$1.3 million of unrestricted cash against C$101.8 million of debt and a going-concern warning.

By Marc Belzile7 min readCFF.TO

Canadian Markets

Planet Ventures Fell to Five Cents Two Days Before a Consolidation That Changes Nothing

Planet Ventures Inc. (CSE: PXI) fell 16.7 per cent on 16 September 2026, to C$0.05, on roughly 37 times average volume and with no announcement that day. Behind the move sit a rights offering that issued 152,244,604 shares at a penny on 1 September, a five-for-one consolidation effective 18 September, and a year of disclosed investments smaller than the disclosed investor-awareness budget.

By Marc Belzile8 min readPXI.CN

Economy

Four of the Worst Falls on the Toronto Exchange This Week Were Funds, and Three Held One Stock

On September 9, 2026 four of the ten largest declines on the Toronto exchange were exchange-traded funds. Three of them hold nothing but Shopify, and they fell 27.83, 14.97 and 14.90 per cent respectively on the same day, against the same company. A fourth, a target-maturity bond fund, had printed a 38.59 per cent gain five sessions earlier on 2,000 units and gave all of it back. Here is what each of those numbers was actually measuring, and where the manager publishes the figure that is not a quote.

By Marc Belzile7 min readRUQO.TOSHPE.TO

Canadian Markets

What You Actually Own in a TSX Index Fund

A Canadian index fund is described as diversified exposure to the Canadian market. It is more precisely a concentrated bet on financials, energy and materials, governed by rules worth reading.

By Marc Belzile3 min readXICZCNVCN

Mining and ResourcesCopper

Teck Resources and Anglo Teck: Merger Upside Versus Execution Risk

Teck’s Class A and Class B shares trade on the TSX as TECK.A and TECK.B, with TECK also listed on the NYSE. Its portfolio includes Quebrada Blanca and Carmen de Andacollo in Chile, Highland Valley Copper in British Columbia, an interest in Antamina in Peru, Red Dog in Alaska, and the Trail metallurgical complex in British Columbia. Q2 2026 revenue was C$3.61 billion and adjusted EBITDA was C$2.19 billion. Teck held C$6.05 billion in cash against C$4.81 billion of debt.

By Marc Belzile2 min readTECK.B

EnergyUranium

NexGen Energy After Rook I Approval: What Comes Next?

NexGen trades as NXE on both the TSX and NYSE. It owns the Rook I property in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, including the Arrow uranium deposit. Rook I is a development-stage project with no operating revenue. On March 5, 2026, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission approved the project’s environmental assessment and Licence to Prepare Site and Construct. Q1 cash was approximately C$655 million, while reported current liabilities included significant convertible obligations.

By Marc Belzile2 min readNXE

EnergyUranium

Cameco Stock Analysis: A Full Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle Investment

Cameco trades as CCO on the TSX and CCJ on the NYSE. It produces uranium through McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake in Saskatchewan and holds an interest in Inkai in Kazakhstan. It also operates conversion and fuel-manufacturing businesses and owns 49% of Westinghouse. Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA was C$391 million; cash and debt were approximately C$1.1 billion and C$1.0 billion, respectively.

By Marc Belzile2 min readCCO

EnergyMidstream

Pembina, Egress and the Case for Owning the Toll Road

Pembina's fee-based infrastructure network profits from Western Canadian egress constraints rather than commodity prices, a dynamic often compared to owning a toll road. This piece explains why the analogy holds, where it breaks down, and what contract quality actually protects against.

By Marc Belzile4 min readPPL

EnergyUranium

Cameco and Westinghouse: The Vertical Integration Bet

Cameco's Westinghouse stake turned a cyclical uranium miner into a fuel-cycle business with recurring services revenue. This piece unpacks what integration adds, what it costs in leverage and reporting complexity, and how to read the segments separately.

By Marc Belzile3 min readCCO

EnergyUranium

Uranium Term Contracting Picks Up as Utilities Extend Coverage

Uranium term-contracting volumes are rising as utilities extend coverage further out, a shift that matters more to producer revenue than the widely quoted spot price. The piece explains the term-versus-spot dynamic, the slow supply response, and how to read a producer's contracted position.

By Marc Belzile3 min readCCO

EnergyPricing

What the WCS Differential Actually Costs Canada

The discount on Western Canadian Select splits into a stable quality component and a volatile transport component driven by pipeline and rail capacity. Knowing which one is moving in a given quarter is key to reading heavy-oil producer earnings and forecasting when realizations might recover.

By Marc Belzile4 min read

Real EstateHousing

Canada's Housing Starts Data Is Telling Two Different Stories

A steady national housing-starts headline is masking a sharp split between resilient multi-unit construction and falling single-family building. This piece explains the financing mechanics behind the divergence and why materials investors should track the mix, not the total.

By Marc Belzile3 min read

EnergyIntegrated

Suncor's Refining Margins Are Carrying the Quarter

Suncor's latest results show the integrated producer model working as intended, with downstream margins offsetting a weaker upstream quarter. This piece explains the natural-hedge mechanism, why utilisation and turnaround timing determine whether it holds, and where the offset has real limits.

By Marc Belzile4 min readSU

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